Democrat Adam Hamilton and incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall are squaring off in an increasingly competitive battle over Kansas, long considered a GOP stronghold, with a new poll showing the challenger narrowly ahead. Marshall is seeking a second term, while Hamilton, the founder of the country's largest United Methodist Church, is trying to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas when George McGill was reelected in 1932. A Wedgewood Polls survey released this week found Hamilton with support from 50 percent of likely voters, compared with 48 percent for Marshall, while Libertarian David Graham received 2 percent.
Hamilton’s 2-point advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, meaning the survey does not establish a clear leader in the race. The survey was conducted among 500 likely voters using an online panel between September 22-24. Wedgewood said it independently designed and funded the survey and that no candidate, campaign, political party or outside organization sponsored it.
The Senate battle comes as Marshall has also voiced concerns about the way U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has carried out operations in southwest Kansas. On September 23, amid increased ICE activity around Dodge City, Garden City and Liberal, Marshall called for federal immigration agents to work more closely with local authorities to conduct enforcement operations.
Republicans have generally been strong supporters of the Trump administration's immigration enforcement agenda, including expanded deportation efforts and increased ICE operations. It comes after a slate of shootings involving federal immigration agents under the government's mass deportation policy. Meanwhile, the White House dispatched Vice President JD Vance to campaign with Marshall earlier this month as Republicans scramble to shore up support in unexpectedly competitive Kansas.
The Sunflower State remains a strongly Republican one. President Donald Trump won Kansas by 16.1 points in 2024, up from 14.7 points in 2020. The state's electorate is also heavily white and non-college-educated, groups that have generally leaned Republican in recent elections.
Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Hamilton and Marshall for comment on the latest polling. The Wedgewood Polls survey was conducted less than a week after an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll also showed Hamilton with a narrow advantage. That survey, conducted between September 15-16 among 750 likely Kansas voters, put Hamilton at 45 percent and Marshall at 43 percent.
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