President Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater in the nation’s largest farm states as diesel prices have surged in recent days, a major warning sign for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Rising diesel prices could have critical impacts for farmers, who rely on diesel to power agricultural equipment. Rising prices could also drive up transportation costs across the agricultural industry.
Rising diesel prices stem from disruptions to oil and fuel shipments in the Middle East amid the United States' war in Iran, which began earlier this year. Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment via email. For Republicans, there is a political risk if farmers, a core part of the Republican base that helped elect Trump in 2016 and 2024, abandon the party or sit out the midterms due to frustration over the impact.
Rising prices come just weeks before the November midterms, and Democrats hope to expand the electoral battleground into more conservative states like Iowa and Kansas, where diesel's impact could be felt most acutely. According to the 2022 Census of Agriculture, the following 10 states have the highest market value of agricultural products sold: Those states include a mix of solidly Democratic states like California, competitive swing states like North Carolina and Wisconsin, and conservative states like Nebraska and Texas. Trump’s approval was in the negatives in all of those states except for Kansas, where he remained slightly above water in the latest data from Civiqs, which tracks the president’s approval rating in each state as part of a poll with more than 130,000 responses nationwide.
Diesel prices reached a record high point on Wednesday, increasing to $6.3103 per gallon, according to AAA. On Tuesday, the national average was $6.2694 per gallon. Prices averaged $5.9424 one week earlier, $5.4460 one month earlier and $3.7008 one year earlier.
Regular gas prices have also increased to $4.3672 per gallon, according to AAA. Diesel matters to farmers for several reasons. Heavy agricultural machinery, including tractors, harvesters, and irrigation pumps, uses diesel engines.
Rising diesel prices translate to higher operating costs for farmers. Diesel also powers trucks, trains and ships that move agricultural products across the supply chain, increasing transportation costs across the industry. Some farmers have criticized Trump amid rising diesel prices.
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