More than a dozen House districts that backed President Donald Trump by double-digit margins in the 2024 election have become competitive in the 2026 midterm elections. Democrats are increasingly optimistic that a “blue wave” fueled by Trump’s declining approval rating will help carry them to victory in this year’s elections. Republicans currently have a slim House majority, holding 218 seats to Democrats’ 214 seats, so Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to seize control of the chamber.
As polls point to a more favorable national environment, Democrats are eyeing seats Trump won by double digits in 2024. These aren’t necessarily seen as must-wins for the party, but could give them additional padding heading into the next Congress. Many of these districts are already represented by Democrats but became more conservative in the wave of mid-decade redistricting that occurred, mostly in Republican-leaning states, earlier this year.
Others with large Hispanic populations were once more friendly to Democrats but swung rightward over the past decade as Trump made inroads with that voting bloc. But polling suggests that a reversion back to Democrats could leave Republican members of Congress in those seats vulnerable this year. Voters appear to be judging Trump “very harshly," compared to two years ago, when he was running on campaign promises such as lowering prices and becoming less engaged in international affairs, Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Maryland, Washington, told Newsweek.
Current polling and special election results suggest any district Trump won by 15 points or less could be competitive this year, he said. In this year’s midterms, which he said “seems to be another midterm election in which voters vote against the president's party,” Democrats’ chances of winning some of these double-digit Trump seats could rest upon their ability to win back Hispanic and Latino voters, he said. But in 2018, the last time there was a "blue wave" election during Trump's first term in office, Democrats won several seats Trump won by double digits in 2016, though many of those Democrats would go on to lose reelection in 2020, a more neutral year.
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for comment via email. In total, the Cook Political Report rates 18 seats that Trump won by a double-digit margin in 2024 as being either a toss-up or having a lean toward either Democrats or Republicans. Here is a look at where these seats are.
Four of these races are in Florida. The Sunshine State was a premier battleground state for much of the 2000s but has become more of a conservative stronghold over the past decade as Hispanic voters shifted rightward and as the state attracted an influx of more Republican-leaning retirees. But Democrats are hoping to make a comeback there this year.
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