In the wake of a summer migration crisis that rocked Madrid, Spaniards fear ongoing tensions could spiral into an armed conflict with the country’s North African neighbor. The sudden arrival of more than 70,000 migrants in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta in late July fueled criticism of Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist government and its handling of the border, as well as its lone opposition to tough new EU migration policies. It also raised questions about Morocco’s role in the mass influx—something Sánchez repeatedly rejected.
A September poll by POLITICO, conducted by independent pollster PF Global weeks before Sánchez called a snap election and published exclusively in POLITICO’s new Madrid Playbook, found that 58 percent of respondents believed tensions over Ceuta and Melilla — which Morocco considers occupied territories — were likely to trigger an armed conflict between Spain and Morocco within the next decade. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the conservative People’s Party currently polling ahead of Sánchez’s Socialists, claimed the crisis has been “spearheaded and coordinated by Morocco” and that the government had covered it up. Sumar, a junior partner in Sánchez’s government, also questioned Rabat’s role, and a police report alleged Moroccan agents had helped orchestrate the mass movement.
The people, power moves and policies shaping Spanish politics. Sánchez described the surge as an attack on Spain’s territorial integrity but repeatedly dismissed claims that Rabat was behind it, instead accusing smugglers. Still, in the POLITICO survey, three-quarters of Spaniards said Morocco poses a real threat to their country’s territorial integrity.
People who said they’d cast their votes for Feijóo or the far-right Vox party in the next election were both more likely to consider Morocco a threat to Spain, and more likely to think that tensions over the exclaves could lead to an armed conflict this decade. More than three-quarters of Vox supporters and 68% of People’s Party supporters thought a conflict in the next decade was likely. Even among supporters of Sánchez’s own Socialist Party, nearly two-thirds considered Morocco a genuine threat.
The party’s support base was split about the likelihood of a conflict, with 47% saying an armed conflict is likely but 43% saying it is not. The poll shows that Morocco was widely seen as a threat to Spain. Over 80% of Spaniards said it posed a moderate to significant risk to Spain, putting the country well ahead of other foreign powers such as China, the U.S. and Russia.
Still, two-thirds of Spaniards in the survey said they expected Ceuta and Melilla would still be under Spanish control in 20 years’ time. The bloc is now discussing emergency measures to deal with mass movements that may be engineered or weaponized, but both the Commission and ministers have connected that emergency response framework to the role of smugglers and criminal networks. For Spaniards, the idea that Morocco could engineer a situation to annex Ceuta and Melilla is far from theoretical speculation.
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