Democrats have spent much of the past decade watching Iowa move steadily toward the GOP. But less than a month before Election Day, the state's governor's race is raising an increasingly serious question: Is Iowa beginning to shift back? Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand heads into Tuesday night's first gubernatorial debate against Republican Zach Lahn holding a clear lead across the latest public polling, while prediction markets and several major election forecasters now make the Democrat the favorite to win.
A Sand victory would be a significant breakthrough for Democrats in a state that has become increasingly difficult terrain for the party since former President Barack Obama carried it twice. President Donald Trump won Iowa by more than 13 points in 2024, and Republicans currently dominate its congressional delegation and state government. Iowa has not elected a Democratic governor since Chet Culver in 2006.
Yet the race to succeed retiring Republican Governor Kim Reynolds has emerged as one of Democrats' strongest pickup opportunities anywhere in the country—and Tuesday's debate gives Lahn one of his biggest remaining opportunities to change its trajectory. Newsweek reached out to the Sand and Lahn campaigns for comment via email. The most recent public polling has been remarkably consistent in showing Sand ahead.
A New York Times/Siena University poll conducted from September 22 through October 1 among 606 likely voters found Sand leading Lahn 52 percent to 41 percent, an 11-point advantage. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research from September 24 to 28 put Sand ahead 53 percent to 44 percent among 1,008 likely voters. Marist found an even larger gap, 12 points, in its September 17-20 survey of 1,050 registered voters, with Sand at 54 percent and Lahn at 42 percent.
Independents broke for Sand 57 percent to 33 percent in that survey. While a Republican-aligned co/efficient survey conducted September 14-16 showed a considerably closer race, it still had Sand ahead 46 percent to 42 percent among 831 likely voters. Earlier polling has pointed in the same direction.
YouGov gave Sand a 10-point advantage among likely voters in early September, while an Emerson College/Nexstar survey conducted August 31 to September 1 showed Sand leading by a narrower 49 percent to 46 percent. The important caveat for Democrats is that polling margins have varied significantly—from three or four points to double digits—and Iowa has moved decisively Republican in recent presidential elections. But the absence of a recent poll showing Lahn ahead is nevertheless notable this close to Election Day.
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