South Carolina Republicans are set to choose between Senator Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman in the special runoff on Tuesday to pick a new nominee in the Senate race following the death of Senator Lindsey Graham. Darline Graham was appointed by South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster to fill the seat held by her late brother, who died in July. She has received President Donald Trump’s endorsement in the runoff.
She faces Norman, a conservative member of the House Freedom Caucus, as no candidate received an outright majority in the special primary held earlier in August. Newsweek reached out to the Graham and Norman campaigns for comment via email. Polling on the first round of the primary showed Graham with a lead.
For instance, a Trafalgar Group poll of 1,027 likely voters from August 8-10 showed Graham up 7 points over Norman, 26 percent to 20 percent, with other candidates trailing those two. How voters who supported other candidates break between Graham and Norman could be decisive in the outcome of the runoff on Tuesday. Limited polling on the runoff has been made available, but prediction markets view Graham as the favorite to win the party’s nomination.
As of Monday, Graham’s chances of victory stood at 68 percent on Kalshi and 77 percent on Polymarket. However, on Kalshi, her chances have narrowed over the past week; on August 17, Graham had about an 89 percent chance of winning the nomination. Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future. Graham received the most support in the primary, winning just under 33 percent of the vote, while Norman received just under 25 percent of the vote, according to the South Carolina Election Commission.
Representative Russell Fry received nearly 20 percent, while former Governor Mark Sanford received about 15 percent support. She placed first but did not receive the majority needed to avoid a runoff. Trump has been a vocal supporter of Darline Graham’s campaign, rallying for her over the weekend in hopes of giving her a last-minute boost in momentum in the primary.
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